Philies in the Playoffs

The Phillies are the prohibitive favorites in the NLDS against Cincinnati and to represent the National League in the World Series.There is justification for it but I think the Reds will give the Phillies all they can handle before bowing out.

On paper, it seems as though the Phillies have a decided edge in the pitching match ups. They certainly have an enormous edge of playoff experience and playing under the bright lights with everything on the line. The Phils also have a huge home field advantage playing in front of the rabid, towel-waving fans who have been packing Citizens Bank Park every night for the last four years. But, let's take a closer look at a series that could be closer than most think.

Edinson Volquez will get the ball in game one for the Reds with no pressure whatsoever pitching against the likely NL Cy Young Award winner and the guy that everybody expects to win the game, Roy Halladay. No doubt Volquez is a bit of a quirky, enigmatic guy but he has nasty shit when he is on and the Phillies struggle with guys they've never seen before or see rarely. And, he is one of the rare right-handers that fares better against lefty hitters of which the Phillies lineup is stacked with.

Roy Oswalt has dominated the Reds in his career and has been masterful since joining the Phillies and has been unbeatable at CBP. Bronson Arroyo has been there before with the 2004 Red Sox but is vulnerable to the home run ball and could be the Cincinnati starter that struggles most in the series because of it.

Cole Hamels has been brilliant for most of the last three months and was the WS MVP in 2008 and seems to have regained that form. Johnny Cueto is much like Volquez from a mental and physical standpoint and has stuff to go the distance almost every time out but again, lacks the post-season experience that might serve him well.

It will be interesting to see how Dusty Baker deploys his bullpen with veteran lefty Arthur Rhodes, the flame-throwing rookie left-hander Aroldis Chapman and soft-tossing southpaw Travis Wood, who as a starter took a perfect game into the ninth inning against the Phillies. You have to have lefties to neutralize the Phillies, who were the team that ended Rhodes long scoreless streak earlier in the season.

Speaking of the bullpen, the Phillies has been stabilized by Brad Lidge and the way he has locked down games in the ninth inning. The Phils will carry only 10 pitchers in this series which means they think the Roys and Hamels will go deep into the games, meaning they might need only an inning or two from the most reliable guys the have. They are counting on using Ryan Madson and Lidge and not much else to get through this series. A big question is how healthy is JC Romero and how effective will he be? He was an underrated part of the title team two years ago but has struggled ever since..at some point, you figure he's going to be called on to get a big out or two against a left-hand hitter..can he get it done?

Charlie Manuel has to have Shane Victorino leading off and put Jimmy Rollins lower in the order to maximize production from a guy who has delivered a lot of clutch hits in the post-season and who simply can't run right now like he normally does because of injury.

The Phillies are a bit erratic and inconsistent offensively and must, must must have Ryan Howard focused and ready to be selective at the plate to be in position to get back to the WS for a third straight season.

Don't discount the Reds lineup by any means. Brandon Phillips is an igniter at the top of the lineup and is followed by likely MVP Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, Jay Bruce and Jonny Gomes, all of whom are capable of hitting the ball out of the yard. And, don't forget rookie Drew Stubbs, who hit 22 homers and can steal a base or two.

This is a good, young homegrown team that might have peaked a little earlier than expected but should be a contender for a while in a division without a dominant team. I will equate the 2010 Reds with the 2007 Phillies who learned from their first visit to the playoffs to come back and go the distance the following year. I'm not saying the Reds will win it all in 2011 but they will get a first taste that will leave them hungry for more in a four-game loss to the Phillies.