Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Pondering the Phillies

Well, it is not time to panic just yet, or is it? According to the general populus we might have reached that stage and the prevailing wisdom seems to be "trade Jayson Werth, trade Jayson Werth."

I think the worst thing the Phillies can do over the next ten days is trade Jayson Werth.

There is no question this has been a disappointing and very frustrating season and his struggles seem to have become magnified with each passing day and the trade deadline looming.

But let's examine what is wrong with this team and Werth's situation separately and together.

Clearly, injuries have been the biggest hurdle to the Phillies season so far and likely will prevent them from getting to the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season.

Jimmy Rollins has a few game-winning hits since his return but has struggled and has not been the dynamic player he has been in the past and the spark plug that we were all hoping he would become for a struggling offense.

Raul Ibanez has been a complete non-factor and virtually untradeable because of his contract and non-production (he's a super guy but the player that needs to be moved, not Werth).

Shane Victorino and Werth have been inconsistent and Ryan Howard was not the impact power he has been in the past during the first half.

The starting pitching on most nights has been good enough to win if the offense was performing at 2007-09 levels but that hasn't happened.

The manager has no faith in anyone in the bullpen, justifiably so.

So, where does that leave the Phils for the final 70 games of the season?

General manager Ruben Amaro, jr has hinted that a deal for pitching could be imminent but what do the Phillies have to give up to get it done?

And, if the price is Werth, how does that make you better? And, how are you going to get an impact pitcher for a guy who will be a free agent after the season? And, how can you possibly deal for the pricey Roy Oswalt or Danny Haren when you wouldn't spend the money to sign Cliff Lee and are tied in at $24 million for severely underachieving Joe Blanton?

You would then be weakening an already struggling lineup and removing the one impact right-hand bat that you need to balance the lineup. Let us not forget that Werth is a pretty good right fielder with an outstanding arm and a guy who can run and steal bases, though he hasn't done it as often this season (that's a whole nother issue for a team that struggles to score).

The general populus also seems to think that Dominic Brown's arrival in the big leagues will be as a team savior. Which means, most people think that a guy who has spent a month in Triple-A and never played in the major leagues will step into a pennant race and an make an immediate and big enough impact to turn the season around? That is wishful thinking and way too much pressure to put on a young player. It just doesn't happen that way.

The Phillies have captured the city's heart and have become the premier team in the area for the last few years because of their on-field success, the ballpark, the friendly nature of most of their stars and their willingness to make themselves better during the course of a playoff push.

Trading Jayson Werth doesn't make them better, as a matter of fact, I think they need to find a way to sign him and keep him here. The have sold out every game for more than a year and the stadium is the place to be for the younger crowd and for the baseball afficianado. You can't give up on the season and expect the fans to come streaming in during the last two months, especially in September with school starting, and sell them on the idea that every thing is alright.

The Phillies need to plough forward as though the wild card is a realistic possibility and the only way that can happen is to keep Jayson Werth.