Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Phillies Season on the Brink of Ending

Where do I start with my list of grievances about the Phillies-Giants game tonight?

Potential go-ahead run at second base in the 8th inning with nobody out and they can't advance Werth..why wasn't Ibanez or Gload brought in to face Romo after Rollins popped up? (by the way Jimmy, don't be afraid to advance the runner). You have to win the game right there! Gotta get a lefty up there to hit for Francisco against the righty..and even if Bochy brings in his lefty Affeldt, I'd still rather have one of the veteran guys up there in that spot.

No problem with Oswalt coming in to pitch the 9th..it was his "throw day" or day to throw in the bullpen in between starts anyway..can't use Kendrick there in a crucial situation and you have to wait on Lidge for a save situation.

But, why do they insist on throwing the same pitch over and over and over to Cody Ross when he's proven he can hit it? and why does Pablo Sandoval get a belt high fastball down the middle? He's a free swinger..make him chase a pitch outside the zone that he can't hurt you with.

The biggest question is this...why are the Giants playing like the team that has been there before and making every play they have to while the Phillies are struggling and playing like a team that is receding from the bright lights?

And, all that doesn't take into account the absolute horseshit third strike calls on Victorino in the first inning, Ruiz in the third and the missed balk in the second.

These are supposed to be the best umpires throughout the season? Start acting like it and stop missing glaring calls..yes, that is frustration but it is the truth, too.

Sadly, the party is over..the Phillies will not be the first team since the 1942-44 Cardinals to make it to the World Series.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

NLCS Game 1 Reaction

Obviously, a disappointing result for the Phillies and their fans last night in the opener of the NLCS.

Roy Halladay looked he was going to breeze through the Giants until the first of Cody Ross's two home runs in the third inning. The sixth inning was problematic from a third strike that wasn't called on Pat Burrell that kept the inning going to Raul Ibanez misplaying Burrell's fly ball later in the frame to Juan Uribe coming through with a clutch two-out RBI hit.

But, the bigger problem for the Phils is their offense. They are still struggling to come through with timely hits and any sort of consistency at all. Ryan Howard doubles to lead off the second inning in a scoreless game and never moves; Howard gets ahead of Lincecum 2-0 with two on and two out in the third and strikes out. He has to be a force in the middle of the lineup and everyone has to be disciplined and get into hitters counts and take advantage of them.

Do we need to send out a search party for Jimmy Rollins? Hard to look worse than he did in Saturday's game. He can't run and he is impatient but maybe it is time to put him back in his comfort zone at the top of the lineup.

The starting pitching should be good enough to keep the scores low and the games close which means a lot of how this series will play out and be determined will fall on the bullpens. The Phils have made a lot of dramatic, late inning comebacks against the likes of Huston Street and Jonathan Broxton over the last few postseasons and it looks like they are going to have to do it again if they want to advance to a third straight World Series.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

The fourth and final series...

This one is the hardest to evaluate and forecast simply because of the Yankee ghosts of the past and their winning history and tradition.

The Yanks did not play well in September and have a lot of age and mileage on the team yet you always seem to think they'll find a way to get it done when it counts. The lineup will grind through at-bats and try to wear down the starters to get to the weak spot bullpen and everybody 1-through-9 is capable of leaving the yard, especially at home.

Simply put, they will not beat the Twins if they do not win game one. Over the last few weeks, deservedly so, the topic of discussion has been the lack of reliable starting pitching behind the big horse, CC Sabathia, who by the way, has had his struggles in the post-season.

Andy Pettitte's post-season success is well documented and might be discussed for perpetuity in the Hall of Fame but he is a big big question mark right now. And you have to wonder how Phil Hughes will handle his first post-season as a core member of the rotation. How bad do A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez have to be to be pulled from that rotation, and, in the case of the mercurial Vazquez, to be left off the roster.

The bullpen is good and with an off day or two can survive being used a lot and pitching on back-to-back days. Kerry Wood has been a revelation in front of Mariano Rivera, who is the best there ever was as a closer in the playoffs.

The Twins need a big effort from Francisco Liriano in the opener and need to go back to New York no worse than 1-1, preferably ahead 2-0. The Twins have had chances in past series against the Yanks but just haven't been able to take advantage of them and find a way to make the big play or pitch when they needed to. As a matter of fact, they've had the lead in each of the last six games in a row that they have lost to the Yankees.

This is a very sound team that hits, plays well defensively, doesn't walk opposing batters and will not beat itself. I think this a confident team that will benefit from the presence of Jim Thome not only in the lineup but in the clubhouse, as well. It is amazing that the Twins have made it to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons without Justin Morneau playing in the second half in both. It is a shame he can't take his place on the big stage and allow the casual fan to see just how good he is and how much better the team is when he is in the lineup. Danny Valencia has injected some life and energy at third base and given the Twins an unexpected boost offensively.

Delmon Young finally emerged as a force this year and lived up to advanced billing and his vast potential. He has to continue to deliver timely hits for the Twins and offer the balance that a left-hand heavy lineup needs in potentially four games against Sabathia and Pettitte.

Joe Nathan, who gave up the big home run to ARod in last year's ALDS, missed the entire season and the Twins never missed a beat with Jon Rauch stepping in to the closer's role. Minnesota added some reinforcements with Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes and their bullpen is better and deeper than it has been the last few years. They have a very underrated Matt Gurrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain in that bullpen and the Yankees will have a harder time navigating through those six guys than they would against the 'pens of many other teams in the league.

The Twins had the best home record in the American League this season and will need to rely on winning at Target Field to win this series. I think this is the year they finally get it done and dethrone the Yanks in a tense game five in front of the home faithful.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Philies in the Playoffs

The Phillies are the prohibitive favorites in the NLDS against Cincinnati and to represent the National League in the World Series.There is justification for it but I think the Reds will give the Phillies all they can handle before bowing out.

On paper, it seems as though the Phillies have a decided edge in the pitching match ups. They certainly have an enormous edge of playoff experience and playing under the bright lights with everything on the line. The Phils also have a huge home field advantage playing in front of the rabid, towel-waving fans who have been packing Citizens Bank Park every night for the last four years. But, let's take a closer look at a series that could be closer than most think.

Edinson Volquez will get the ball in game one for the Reds with no pressure whatsoever pitching against the likely NL Cy Young Award winner and the guy that everybody expects to win the game, Roy Halladay. No doubt Volquez is a bit of a quirky, enigmatic guy but he has nasty shit when he is on and the Phillies struggle with guys they've never seen before or see rarely. And, he is one of the rare right-handers that fares better against lefty hitters of which the Phillies lineup is stacked with.

Roy Oswalt has dominated the Reds in his career and has been masterful since joining the Phillies and has been unbeatable at CBP. Bronson Arroyo has been there before with the 2004 Red Sox but is vulnerable to the home run ball and could be the Cincinnati starter that struggles most in the series because of it.

Cole Hamels has been brilliant for most of the last three months and was the WS MVP in 2008 and seems to have regained that form. Johnny Cueto is much like Volquez from a mental and physical standpoint and has stuff to go the distance almost every time out but again, lacks the post-season experience that might serve him well.

It will be interesting to see how Dusty Baker deploys his bullpen with veteran lefty Arthur Rhodes, the flame-throwing rookie left-hander Aroldis Chapman and soft-tossing southpaw Travis Wood, who as a starter took a perfect game into the ninth inning against the Phillies. You have to have lefties to neutralize the Phillies, who were the team that ended Rhodes long scoreless streak earlier in the season.

Speaking of the bullpen, the Phillies has been stabilized by Brad Lidge and the way he has locked down games in the ninth inning. The Phils will carry only 10 pitchers in this series which means they think the Roys and Hamels will go deep into the games, meaning they might need only an inning or two from the most reliable guys the have. They are counting on using Ryan Madson and Lidge and not much else to get through this series. A big question is how healthy is JC Romero and how effective will he be? He was an underrated part of the title team two years ago but has struggled ever since..at some point, you figure he's going to be called on to get a big out or two against a left-hand hitter..can he get it done?

Charlie Manuel has to have Shane Victorino leading off and put Jimmy Rollins lower in the order to maximize production from a guy who has delivered a lot of clutch hits in the post-season and who simply can't run right now like he normally does because of injury.

The Phillies are a bit erratic and inconsistent offensively and must, must must have Ryan Howard focused and ready to be selective at the plate to be in position to get back to the WS for a third straight season.

Don't discount the Reds lineup by any means. Brandon Phillips is an igniter at the top of the lineup and is followed by likely MVP Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, Jay Bruce and Jonny Gomes, all of whom are capable of hitting the ball out of the yard. And, don't forget rookie Drew Stubbs, who hit 22 homers and can steal a base or two.

This is a good, young homegrown team that might have peaked a little earlier than expected but should be a contender for a while in a division without a dominant team. I will equate the 2010 Reds with the 2007 Phillies who learned from their first visit to the playoffs to come back and go the distance the following year. I'm not saying the Reds will win it all in 2011 but they will get a first taste that will leave them hungry for more in a four-game loss to the Phillies.
By far, the best pitching match up of the first round is game one between Tampa Bay and Texas. The Rays will send David Price to the hill against fellow southpaw Cliff Lee, the marquis addition by the Rangers prior to the trade deadline and the guy that was virtually unhittable in the post-season last year, going 4-0 for the Phillies with two of those wins over the Yankees in the World Series.

This is a really interesting series because of the seemingly contrasting stylew between the Rays who use speed and play small ball to create runs against a Rangers lineup that takes advantage of the ballpark it plays in to hit a lot of home run and mash.

The Rays have to have a near-healthy Evan Longoria to have a shot in this series and have to get a big game from James Shields, their game two starter who gave up a ton of long balls this season. Will Tampa Bay be fueled by the likelihood of playing together as presently constituted for the last time? Which BJ Upton will show up..the guy who almost single-handedly beat Boston in the ALCS two years ago or the guy who has been an enigman and an underachiever? Will Jeff Nieman or Wade Davis pitch well like they did in the first half of the season or struggle like they did in the second half, largely due to injury? How will Rafael Soriano handle the pressure of closing games in the playoffs?

For Texas, the biggest question is how healthy is Josh Hamilton and how much will he contribute? This is a relentless lineup with Elvis Andrus and Michael Young setting the table for Hamilton, Vlad Guerrero, Nellie Cruz, Ian Kinsler and even Mitch Moreland..how will they handle the spotlight and will Guerrero be able to impart any wisdom about playing in the post-season? How will CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter fare in their first playoff starts? And, the same question asked about Soriano certainly applies to the hard-throwing young closer Neftali Feliz for the Rangers.

I've been going back and forth all week about who I like in this series and feel like this is the one series where a game or two could get away from Tampa if they don't pitch well and the Rangers get the bats going. Having been there before and being motivated to do it one last time as a group will be the difference as the Rays prevail in five games.
We are on the eve of the baseball post-season which gives everyone a chance to theorize on how the matchups will play out, make their selections and pick a World Series winner, so let's get to it.

In the NLDS matchup between the Giants and the Braves, I like the Giants in five. This should be a series built on pitching and which team can scratch across just enough runs to get the game to their bullpen and respective closer to win. Tim Lincecum shook off an awful August to have a stellar September and could set the tone in game one. Matt Cain has electric stuff but didn't get run support all year and, as he's already proven once, Jonathan Sanchez is capable of putting together no-hit stuff every time he takes the hill. Sadly, the one starter with experience is Barry Zito and his season fell apart after a pretty solid first half. The Braves will counter with experience in Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson and the youngster Tommy Hanson, who like Sanchez, has the potential to be dominant each time out.

The offenses struggled for both teams most of the year but both clubs are capable of putting up some runs and hitting the ball out of the yard. Aubrey Huff resurrected his career in San Francisco this season as did Pat Burrell and Andres Torres, while Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval struggled and Aaron Rowand has virtually disappeared. Where does the flammable Jose Guillen fit into the mix and will he have any impact and of course, you have to mention potential Rookie of the Year Buster Posey, who solidified the lineup once he was inserted into the cleanup spot on an everyday basis.

The Braves have some pop with Derrek Lee, Brian McCann, Alex Gonzalez and potentional ROY Jason Heyward. But, the big question for Atlanta is not only how much will they miss Chipper Jones but how much will they miss Martin Prado, their best player this season. And, can they hide Brooks Conrad defensively for possibly five games at third base without him making a costly misplay? Omar Infante certainly validated his selection to the All-Star team and has to have a big series offensively at the top of the order for the Braves to have a chance.

The Braves were the best home team in the game this season and could be in position to close the series at Turner Field if they can get a split on the road, which means the pressure is on the Giants to win the first two games at home. Even if they don't, I think the Giants find a way to squeeze out a few more runs and win the series in the last game in front of their home fans.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

The Phightin' Phils!

Wow! The morning after the Phillies clinched their fourth straight division title and all I can think about is how remote a possibility this seemed two and a half months ago.

The Phils were the runaway pre-season to choice to not only win the division but glide through the playoffs to a third straight World Series, and according to some experts, a second championship in three seasons.

It sure didn't look like there was any way it could happen in July after losing three of four to the pathetic Pirates and six out of out eight to the Cubbies and Cardinals. But, this amazing group of resilient and talented players has since ripped of 46 wins in their last 63 games to not only clinch another post-season appearance but home field advantage throughout the National League playoffs and the World Series.

Obviously, this team was creamed by injuries throughout the entire season and still managed to win the most games it has since 1993 which is really remarkable considering how badly they struggled offensively throughout most of the season.

And that, my friends, is where the irony lies with this whole season. A lineup that features Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Rollins and Victorino is my concern heading into the post-season.
They were inconsistent the last three years but found a way to come up with the timely hits in the playoffs to win one title and almost another. Yet, this year, they have been even more wildly inconsistent, partly due to injury, but there they are moving into October as the clear favorites in the NL and maybe in all of baseball.

Why? Simply because of pitching. Very fitting and appropriate that Roy Halladay finished off the clinching game to make it to the playoffs for the first time in his career. He has been everything the Phillies thought he would be and wanted him to be when they traded for him in December and he deserves get the ball in game one of the NLDS in eight days. Halladay started the season with a win in Washington and it was perfect symmetry that he pitched the clincher Monday night and did it in such dominating fashion. Have you ever seen a pitcher that has more movement on every pitch he throws than Halladay?

Really, all you need to know about this collection of players is that they let Halladay, Mike Sweeney and Brian Schneider, who had played 40 seasons combined without getting to the post-season, be the first three players to pop the champagne and start the celebration. All the players interviewed after the game all talked about how happy they were for those three guys to finally get the opportunity to play in the spotlight of the post-season and have the chance to win a ring, which you don't often hear in this day and age of the self-absorbed millionaire.

I was nine years old when the Phils won the first of three straight division titles in 1976 and kicked off a nine-year run when they either made the playoffs or challenged for a spot every season. I adored those teams of Schmidt, my favorite all-time player, Bowa, Bull, Garry Lee, Lefty, Tugger, LC, Rufus, Boonie and even Pete, and didn't think there could ever be a team that could be as good or as talented as they were.

However, you sure have to look at the core of this team and say that it could be as good if not better than that group and that is saying something.

JRoll, Howard, Utley, Ruiz and Hamels are all in the prime of their careers and Halladay and Oswalt certainly have a lot left and have been re-energized and revitalized by pitching in front of sellout crowds every night at home and by the chance to pitch in October.

We all know that a huge decision is looming over the Phillies after the season is over about whether or not Jayson Werth will be back. He certainly overcame a shaky middle of the season to provide some big, timely hits and prove his worth to this team over the last month. Chemistry, as discussed earlier, is a huge part of this team's success and he is a central figure in it on and off the field and the Phillies have to find a way to keep him here. It is unfortunate that he hired agent Scott Boras, maybe a foreboding sign of things to come, but he has indicated how much he enjoys playing in Philly and what a good thing they have going and could continue to have if they keep the core together, so maybe that gives some hope that the two sides can find a way to keep him around.

(123 straight sellouts and the chance to play two handfuls of October games at Citizens Bank Park and generate a lot of revenue could also be a factor)

Charlie Manuel not so subtly said the same thing after the clincher last night.

Let's get back to the games on the field. It seems right now that the only thing that can slow the Phillies down is one of their offensive funks. They have the starting pitching, and don't overlook what Joe Blanton has done the last two months, either. After a slow start, he has pitched pretty well and could turn out to be a very valuable fourth starter. Now, by clinching with five games left, they can rest some players, get Rollins some at-bats, rest the bullpen and get themselves in prime position to make a long run into October.

Back at ya next week after the regular season is over and the playoff matchups are set.

Early gut feeling and a little tease...the Yankees won't be playing in the World Series.